The United Jurisdiction of America

A Neo-Medieval Future

One of the most frequently talked-about topics in this sphere is geometric models of history, whether it is linear progress (or Whig) history, cyclical Spenglerian history, Strauss and Howe’s open spiral history, or the Annales School’s four-dimensional history. Just about everyone is somewhat familiar with at least one or two of these ideas, and there are bits and pieces about all of them that are true to a certain extent. But for the purposes of this article today, I propose a less-talked-about geometric history: S-Curve history.

Now, this doesn’t necessarily contradict any of the other models listed, but by itself I think it’s very useful in understanding, well, whatever the heck the 20th century just was. An S-curve is a model that shows gradual, incremental rising in whatever variable is being measured, followed by a rapid and exponential vertical shot to the moon before turning 90 degrees and leveling out again at the new elevation. Simply direct your attention to the graphic below:

As you can see, the S-curve could easily be inverted back in the other direction, or eternally ratchet itself up to higher and higher levels of complexity and sophistication. It is up to you, dear reader, to decide whether you’ll ride the wave up, surfing the times, or get lost in the complexity and drown. This is nothing new, by the way. Similar difficulties occurred in the 19th century, the 17th, the 15th, and all the way back through time. The only constant is change; and since anything can be proven from a contradiction, then anything is possible when change is constant.